[The mortality at 2 years in chronic patients confined to home]

To analyse the relationship between the mortality of the chronically ill confined to their homes and the risk of death predicted by the doctor and other variables.

Longitudinal descriptive study.

223 patients were studied over 2 years.

Survival was related to the variables measured at the beginning of the follow-up: age, sex, social class, time of confinement, number of diagnoses, hours in bed, evaluation with the Katz index and the Nottingham health profile, number of medicines, family help available, and doctor's opinion on the risk of death. 67% of the patients considered at very serious risk of death died within 6 months, as against 6.91 who died in the same period but had a different prognosis. 40.6% at serious risk died within a year, against 12.4% with a different prognosis. The variables independently associated with higher mortality are: the doctor considering that the risk of death is serious/very serious, OR and 95% CI; 2.57 (1.64-4.03); remaining over 16 hours a day in bed, OR 2.39 (1.31-4.36); being over 80, OR 3.41 (1.74-6.66) and being male, OR 1.61 (1.11-2.33).

The prognostic judgement of the general doctor behaved as a predictor of mortality, and may be an indirect indicator of his/her capacity to foresee the need for health services.