The diagnostic dilemma of incidentalomas. Working through uncertainty

The clinical evaluation of incidentally found nodules in the adrenal, thyroid, and pituitary glands is a challenge for physicians, regardless of their level of expertise. Choosing the most direct and cost-effective diagnostic approach and deciding when to treat or not to treat are common dilemmas in clinical practice. This article outlines one diagnostic approach using medical decision-making techniques such as heuristic thinking, critical appraisal of the literature, treatment threshold probability assessment, Bayes' theorem, and discriminant properties of diagnostic tests. These skills are usually discussed in postgraduate training curricula. Nevertheless, they often seem foreign to many clinicians. Evidence suggests that training in these techniques can improve clinical decision making. Use of the skills outlined herein provides a framework to work through the diagnostic uncertainty common in the evaluation of incidentalomas. This approach does not provide perfect answers, as noted in examplar 3 in which two experts argued about the actual pretest probability and treatment thresholds for pituitary incidentalomas. Even if there were no such disagreement, each patient presents unique issues, and there will always be some uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides a starting point from which critical decisions can be made for individual patients.