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Predicting marital stability and divorce in newlywed couples
S Carrère1, K T Buehlman, J M Gottman
1Department of Psychology, University of Washington, Seattle 98195, USA. carrere@u.washington.edu
Summary
The Oral History Interview accurately predicted marital stability and divorce in newlyweds. This method identified a perceived marital bond, offering insights into relationship longevity.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Sociology
- Relationship Science
Background:
- Longitudinal studies are crucial for understanding relationship dynamics over time.
- Predicting marital outcomes is essential for relationship counseling and support.
- The Oral History Interview (OHI) offers a unique qualitative data source.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive power of the OHI for marital stability and divorce.
- To identify key variables within the OHI that forecast relationship longevity.
- To explore the role of perceptual biases and selective attention in marital trajectories.
Main Methods:
- A longitudinal study involving 95 newlywed couples.
- Principal-components analysis of OHI data at Time 1 to identify latent variables.
- Discriminant function analysis to assess predictive accuracy at Time 2 and Time 3.
Main Results:
- A significant latent variable, 'perceived marital bond,' was identified from the OHI.
- The OHI predicted divorce with 87.4% accuracy at Time 2 (within 5 years).
- The OHI predicted divorce with 81% accuracy at Time 3.
Conclusions:
- The OHI is a powerful tool for predicting marital stability and divorce.
- Perceptual biases and selective attention appear to have causal links to marital outcomes.
- Findings support the utility of qualitative interview data in quantitative relationship research.
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