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Related Experiment Videos

Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis.

W M Grove1, D H Zald, B S Lebow

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455-0344, USA. william.m.grove-1@tc.umn.edu

Psychological Assessment
|February 7, 2001
PubMed
Summary

Mechanical prediction methods are generally superior to clinical judgment for combining data in health and behavior studies. This meta-analysis found mechanical predictions to be more accurate, especially when clinical interview data was involved.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision-making science
  • Behavioral science
  • Health psychology

Background:

  • Accurate data combination is crucial for informed judgments and decisions.
  • Clinical and mechanical (formal, statistical) methods are used for data combination.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the predictive accuracy of clinical versus mechanical data-combination techniques.
  • To identify circumstances where one method may outperform the other.

Main Methods:

  • Meta-analysis of studies examining human health and behavior.
  • Comparison of prediction accuracy between clinical and mechanical methods.

Main Results:

  • Mechanical prediction techniques were, on average, 10% more accurate than clinical predictions.

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  • Mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies.
  • Clinical predictions were rarely substantially more accurate than mechanical predictions (6%-16% of studies).
  • Mechanical superiority was consistent across various judgment tasks, judge types, experience levels, and data types.

    • Conclusions:

    • Mechanical prediction methods are equal or superior to clinical prediction methods in a wide range of circumstances.
    • Clinical predictions were relatively less accurate when clinical interview data was included as a predictor.