Weight Loss Curve Analysis

The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model to describe weight loss trend over time and to determine differences, if any, among various weight loss trends. Weight change was studied following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RGB) and vertical banded gastroplasty (VBG). The total number of patients analyzed was 3172, 63.5% VBG and 36.5% RGB. Median age (years) for VBG was 36 (range 18-70) and RGB 38 (range 18-66). Median operative body mass index (BMI) (kg/m(2)) for VBG was 45.0 (range 30.1-90.5) and RGB 43.3 (range 30.4-80.6). Females represented 87% of the VBG patients and 89% of RGB patients. Obesity category percentages for each operative type were: super-VBG 20%, RGB 14%; morbid-VBG 78%, RGB 80%; obese-VBG 2%, RBG 6%. The development of a mathematical model to study weight loss over time was a two-stage process. First, weight loss trend was determined as evidenced by individual patient BMI values plotted over time. It was observed that plots represented quadratic curves, so the model BMI = B&inf0; + B&inf1;(time) + B&inf2;(time)(2) was used. Second, the estimated beta's (B&inf0;, B&inf1;, B&inf2;) were treated as response variables to estimate weight loss trend for the combination effect of three independent variables: gender (male and female), obesity category (super, morbid, obese) and operative type (VBG and RGB). It was found that the three independent variables simultaneously interact with patient weight loss (p = 0.0001).