Inductive learning approaches to rainfall-runoff modelling

Trying to model the rainfall-runoff process is a complex activity as it is influenced by a number of implicit and explicit factors--for example, precipitation distribution, evaporation, transpiration, abstraction, watershed topography, and soil types. However, this kind of forecasting is particularly important as it is used to predict serious flooding, estimate erosion and identify problems associated with low flow. Inductive learning approaches (e.g. decision trees and artificial neural networks) are particularly well suited to problems of this nature as they can often interpret underlying factors (such as seasonal variations) which cannot be modelled by other techniques. In addition, these approaches can easily be trained on the explicit factors (e.g. rainfall) and the inexplicit factors (e.g. abstraction) that affect river flow. Inductive learning approaches can also be extended to account for new factors that emerge over a period of time. This paper evaluates the application of decision trees and two artificial neural network models (the multilayer perceptron and the radial basis function network) to river flow forecasting in two flood prone UK catchments using real hydrometric data. Comparisons are made between the performance of these approaches and conventional flood forecasting systems.