Risk factors predicting complications in blood culture-proven typhoid fever in adults

To create a prognostic model for complications of blood culture-proven typhoid fever in adults (> or = 15 y old), a retrospective cohort was assembled though review of the medical records of the hospitalized patients treated for typhoid fever over a 3-y period ending January 1995. Of the 59 patients included, 21 (35.6%) developed various complications of typhoid fever. No patient included died. Four baseline variables (abdominal pain, systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg, hypoalbuminaemia < 32 g/l and laboratory evidence of disseminated intravascular coagulation) were independently associated with complications and were used to create a prognostic model. The prediction accuracy of the model was determined using the concordance index (c-index). The results (c-index, 0.915 [95%, CI, 89.0-93.0]) showed that the model predicted complications significantly better than chance. The model stratified patients into 3 prognostic stages: low risk for complications (0%; stage I), intermediate risk (42.9%; stage II) and high risk (92.3%; stage III) (p = 0.001). If validated in other settings, it will help clinicians in predicting complications in patients with blood culture-proven typhoid fever on admission.