Prediction of death after percutaneous coronary interventional procedures

The prediction and comparison of procedural death after percutaneous coronary interventional procedures is inherently difficult because of variations in case mix and practice patterns. The impact of modern, expanded patient selection criteria, and newer technologic approaches is unknown. Our objective was to determine whether a risk equation based on patient-related variables and derived from an independent data set can accurately predict procedural death after percutaneous coronary intervention in the current era.

An analysis was made of the Mayo Clinic Coronary Interventional Database January 1, 1995, to October 31, 1997. Expected mortality rate was calculated with the use of the New York State multivariate risk score. In 3387 patients, 3830 procedures (55.1% stents) were performed, with an expected mortality rate of 2.32% and observed mortality rate of 2.38% (P = not significant). The risk score derived from the New York multivariate model was highly predictive of death (chi-square = 213.8; P <.0001). The presence of a high-risk lesion characteristic such as calcium, thrombus, or type C lesion was modestly associated with death.

The New York State multivariate model accurately predicted procedural death in our database.