From paper to electron: how an STM journal can survive the disruptive technology of the Internet

The Internet represents a different type of technology for publishers of scientific, technical, and medical journals. It is not a technology that sustains current markets and creates new efficiencies but is, rather, a disruptive technology that could radically alter market forces, profit expectations, and business models. This paper is a translation and amplification of the research done in this area, applied to a large-circulation new science journal, Pediatrics. The findings suggest that the journal of the future will be electronic, have a less volatile cost structure, be supported more by services than by content, be less able to rely on subscription revenues, and abandon certain elements of current value networks. It also provides a possible framework for other publishers to use to evaluate their own journals relative to this disruptive technology.