Reconstructing historical radionuclide concentrations along the east coast of Ireland using a compartmental model

A mathematical model is presented that simulates the annually averaged transport of radionuclides, originating from the BNFL reprocessing plant at Sellafield, throughout the Irish Sea. The model, CUMBRIA77, represents the processes of radionuclide transport and dispersion in the marine environment and allows predictions of radionuclide concentration in various environmental media, including biota, to be made throughout the whole of the Irish Sea. In this paper we describe the use of the model to reconstruct the historical activity concentrations of 137Cs and 239+240Pu in a variety of environmental media in the western Irish Sea and along the Irish east coast back to 1950. This reconstruction exercise is of interest because only limited measurements of 137Cs and 239+240Pu activity are available prior to the 1980s. The predictions were compared to the available measured data to validate their accuracy. The results of the reconstruction indicate that activity concentrations of 137Cs in the western Irish Sea follow a similar, though slightly delayed and smoothed, profile to the discharges from the Sellafield site, with concentrations at the time of peak discharge (the mid-1970s) being around an order of magnitude higher than those measured in the 1980s and 1990s. By contrast, the concentrations of 239+240Pu at the time of peak discharges were similar to those presently measured. These differences reflect the distinct marine chemistries of the two nuclides, in particular the higher propensity of plutonium to bind to sediments leading to extended transport times. Despite these differences in behaviour the doses to Irish seafood consumers from 137Cs remain significantly higher than those from 239+240Pu.