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Future trends in mortality of French men from mesothelioma
A Banaei1, B Auvert, M Goldberg
1INSERM Unité 88, Hôpital National de Saint-Maurice, 14 Rue du Val d'Osne, 94410 Saint-Maurice, France. alireza@st-maurice.inserm.fr
Objectives:
Previous projections of mortality from mesothelioma among French men have used the age-generation method, based on the Poisson regression model. In this study an alternative method to model mortality from mesothelioma was used to predict its future trend: this method was based on the risk function that links this mortality to past exposure to asbestos, combined with population exposure data.
Method:
Data on past French asbestos imports were used to model the overall past exposure to asbestos in men and assess two extreme scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for its future trends. The number of male deaths occurring between the ages of 50 and 79, from 1997-2050, was then calculated with the risk function for mesothelioma.
Results:
The results showed that mortality from mesothelioma among French men aged 50-79 will continue to increase, reaching a peak averaging between 1140 (optimistic scenario) and 1300 deaths (pessimistic scenario) annually around the years 2030 and 2040, respectively. No preventive measures applied now will affect this trend before then. These results are similar to those of two other predictions of mortality from mesothelioma among French men: a peak around 2030 of 800-1600 deaths annually among men aged 25-89 years, and a peak around 2020 of 1550 deaths annually among men aged 40-84.
Conclusions:
Our results indicate that between 1997 and 2050, the most optimistic and pessimistic trends of future exposure will lead to the deaths from mesothelioma of between 44 480 and 57 020 men, with a corresponding loss of from 877 200 to 1 171 500 person-years of life.
Insights
Mesothelioma mortality in French men will rise until 2030-2040, with asbestos exposure driving future trends. Projections show significant increases in deaths and life-years lost despite current preventive measures.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Occupational Health
- Public Health
Background:
- Mesothelioma mortality projections in French men have historically relied on age-generation methods.
- An alternative approach linking mortality to asbestos exposure is needed for more accurate future predictions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict future mesothelioma mortality trends in French men using a risk function based on past asbestos exposure.
- To estimate the range of potential deaths and life-years lost from mesothelioma between 1997 and 2050.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historical French asbestos import data to model past and future asbestos exposure scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic).
- Applied a risk function to estimate mesothelioma deaths in men aged 50-79 from 1997-2050.
Main Results:
- Mesothelioma mortality in French men aged 50-79 is projected to increase, peaking between 1140-1300 deaths annually around 2030-2040.
- Current preventive measures will not impact this trend before the projected peak.
- Total estimated deaths range from 44,480 to 57,020, with 877,200 to 1,171,500 person-years of life lost.
Conclusions:
- Future mesothelioma mortality in French men is significantly influenced by past asbestos exposure.
- The study provides crucial data for public health planning and resource allocation.
- Urgent consideration of long-term asbestos exposure impacts is warranted.