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Violence is a curvilinear function of temperature in Dallas: a replication
1Department of Psychology, Florida International University, Miami 35159, USA. rottonj@fiu.edu
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
|June 28, 2000
Summary
Higher temperatures correlate with increased aggravated assaults, showing an inverted U-shaped pattern. This temperature-violence link is strongest during daylight and spring, but linear at night and other seasons.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Criminology
- Social Psychology
- Public Health
Background:
- Previous research indicated a curvilinear relationship between temperature and violence in Minneapolis.
- Understanding environmental factors influencing aggression is crucial for public safety.
Purpose of the Study:
- To replicate the observed temperature-violence relationship in Dallas, Texas.
- To investigate the specific conditions under which temperature influences aggravated assaults.
Main Methods:
- Utilized police-reported aggravated assault data and weather data from Dallas, 1994-1995.
- Employed moderator-variable autoregression analyses.
- Controlled for temporal factors like holidays, school schedules, time of day, day of week, and season.
Main Results:
- Aggravated assaults exhibited an inverted U-shaped function of temperature, confirming prior findings.
- The curvilinear relationship was more pronounced during daylight hours and spring.
- Linear relationships between temperature and assaults were observed during nighttime hours and other seasons.
Conclusions:
- The temperature-aggravated assault relationship is replicable and exhibits specific temporal patterns.
- Findings support routine activity theory and the negative affect escape model of aggression.
- Environmental temperature is a significant, albeit complex, predictor of violent crime.