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Causal judgment from contingency information: relation between subjective reports and individual tendencies in
1School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Wales. whitepa@cardiff.ac.uk
Memory & Cognition
|July 6, 2000
Summary
Participants
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Science
Background:
- Causal judgment relies on interpreting contingency information.
- Existing models include associative learning and normative rule induction.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how individuals make causal judgments using contingency data.
- To explore the role of idiosyncratic reasoning in these judgments.
Main Methods:
- Two experiments were conducted involving causal judgment tasks.
- Participants evaluated contingency information and reported changes in their judgments.
Main Results:
- Some participants exhibited idiosyncratic judgment tendencies, deviating from standard models.
- These personal tendencies better predicted individual judgments than the models.
Conclusions:
- Causal judgment involves deliberative use of acquired, sometimes idiosyncratic, evidential value notions.
- Aggregate judgments correlate with normative procedures despite individual variations.