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[Essay on the epistemological relationship between probability and scientific method].
1Instituto Fernandes Figueira, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 22250-020, Brasil. esmaciel@rio.nutecnet.br.
Cadernos De Saude Publica
|July 7, 2000
Summary
Probability calculus emerged in the 19th century, offering predictive insights into unpredictable medical and human science events. This work reviews its history and philosophical implications for medical decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Medical Statistics
- History of Science
- Probability Theory
Context:
- 19th-century emergence of statistical regularities in Medicine and Human Sciences.
- Shift from strictly-causal laws to probabilistic laws for forecasting.
- Recognition of unpredictability in events previously considered random.
Purpose:
- To present a historical review of probability calculus.
- To explore the applications of probability in Medicine and Human Sciences.
- To discuss philosophical considerations of probabilistic models and decision analysis in Medicine.
Summary:
- The study traces the historical development of probability calculus, highlighting its 19th-century origins in Medicine and Human Sciences.
- It details how statistical regularities enabled probabilistic forecasting, offering an alternative to deterministic models.
- The review includes a discussion on the philosophical underpinnings of using probabilistic approaches and decision analysis in medical contexts.
Impact:
- Provides historical context for the integration of probability in scientific disciplines.
- Highlights the evolution of thought from deterministic to probabilistic reasoning in Medicine.
- Offers a foundation for understanding the philosophical basis of medical decision-making under uncertainty.