Ozone formation in California's San Joaquin Valley: a critical assessment of modeling and data needs

Data from the 1990 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/Atmospheric Utility Signatures, Predictions, and Experiments (SJVAQS/AUSPEX) field program in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suggest that both urban and rural areas would have difficulty meeting an 8-hr average O3 standard of 80 ppb. A conceptual model of O3 formation and accumulation in the SJV is formulated based on the chemical, meteorological, and tracer data from SJVAQS/AUSPEX. Two major phenomena appear to lead to high O3 concentrations in the SJV: (1) transport of O3 and precursors from upwind areas (primarily the San Francisco Bay Area, but also the Sacramento Valley) into the SJV, affecting the northern part of the valley, and (2) emissions of precursors, mixing, transport (including long-range transport), and atmospheric reactions within the SJV responsible for regional and urban-scale (e.g., down-wind of Fresno and Bakersfield) distributions of O3. Using this conceptual model, we then conduct a critical evaluation of the meteorological model and air quality model. Areas of model improvements and data needed to understand and properly simulate O3 formation in the SJV are highlighted.