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Thinking about Russia: plausible pasts and probable futures
1Ohio State University, Columbus 43210-1222, USA. tetlock.1@osu.edu
The British Journal of Social Psychology
|July 25, 2000
Summary
Counterfactual thinking about the past significantly shapes future judgments and policy preferences. Ideological beliefs influence how individuals interpret historical "what ifs," impacting their policy stances.
Area of Science:
- Social Psychology
- Political Science
- Cognitive Science
Background:
- Counterfactual cognitions, or "what if" thoughts, play a role in decision-making.
- Understanding how past counterfactuals influence future judgments and policy is crucial for social and political analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of counterfactual thinking on future judgments and policy preferences.
- To examine the role of ideology in shaping counterfactual beliefs and their policy implications.
Main Methods:
- Correlational and experimental research designs were employed.
- Study 1 involved 47 Soviet Union specialists assessing counterfactuals and forecasts.
- Study 2 manipulated counterfactual scenario salience and plausibility in non-experts and experts.
Main Results:
- Ideological differences were observed, with liberals more likely to endorse certain counterfactuals about Soviet history.
- Expert endorsement of counterfactuals predicted their 1992 policy preferences.
- Manipulated counterfactuals significantly altered non-experts' policy preferences, while experts remained largely resistant.
Conclusions:
- Historical counterfactual assumptions are subjective and theory-driven.
- These subjective assumptions have significant consequences for policy preferences.
- Ideology profoundly influences the interpretation of historical counterfactuals.
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