[Global health indicators as predictors of mortality in elderly persons: a six-year prospective study]

The objective of this prospective study was to determine if certain global health indicators can predict the occurrence of mortality in a representative sample of the elderly in three age strata, after adjusting for sex. The sample, matched for age and sex, comprised 559 subjects. Structured interviews based on the OARS and SMAF were used to assess health. The cumulative number of deaths per month was then recorded over a six-year period. Cox's multivariate model was used to express the relative mortality risk among these three age cohorts using the overall health indicators as predictors. The results indicate that these indicators are significant predictors of mortality only in the 65-72 age group. Several hypotheses are presented to explain this phenomenon: psychological adjustment to illness, internalization of prevailing social norms, or a cohort and survival effect.