An improved estimation of mean body temperature using combined direct calorimetry and thermometry

The conventional method used to estimate the change in mean body temperature (dMBT) is by taking X% of a body core temperature and (1-X)% of weighted mean skin temperature, the value of X being dependent upon ambient temperature. This technique is used widely, despite opposition from calorimetrists. In the present paper we attempt to provide a better method. Minute-by-minute changes in dMBT, as assessed using calorimetry, and 21 (20 if esophageal temperature was unavailable) various regional temperatures (dRBTs), as assessed using thermometry, including 6 subcutaneous measures, were collected from 7 young male adults at 6 calorimeter temperatures. Since a calorimeter measures only changes in heat storage, which can be converted to dMBT, all body temperatures are expressed as changes from the reasonably constant pre-exposure temperatures. The following three aspects were investigated. (1) The prediction of dMBT from the 21 (or 20) dRBTs with multi-linear regression analysis (MLR). This yields two results, model A with rectal temperature (dTre) alone, and model B with dTre and esophageal temperature (dTes). (2) The prediction of dMBT from dTre with or without dTes and 13 skin surface temperatures combined to one weighted mean skin temperature (dTsk), using MLR. This results in models C and D. Six more models (E-J) were added, representing the above two sets in various combinations with four factors. (3) The conventional method calculated with four values for X. Model A predicted better than 0.3 degree C in 70% of the cases. Model I was the best amongst the models with 13 weighted skin temperatures (better than 0.3 degree C in 60% of the cases). The conventional method was erratic.