Bias in proportion judgments: the cyclical power model

When participants make part-whole proportion judgments, systematic bias is commonly observed. In some studies, small proportions are overestimated and large proportions underestimated; in other studies, the reverse pattern occurs. Sometimes the bias pattern repeats cyclically with a higher frequency (e.g., overestimation of proportions less than .25 and between .5 and .75; underestimation otherwise). To account for the various bias patterns, a cyclical power model was derived from Stevens' power law. The model proposes that the amplitude of the bias pattern is determined by the Stevens exponent, beta (i.e., the stimulus continuum being judged), and that the frequency of the pattern is determined by a choice of intermediate reference points in the stimulus. When beta < 1, an over-then-under pattern is predicted; when beta > 1, the under-then-over pattern is predicted. Two experiments confirming the model's assumptions are described. A mixed-cycle version of the model is also proposed that predicts observed asymmetries in bias patterns when the set of reference points varies across trials.