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Sensitivity analysis of risk assessment programs to various input parameters.

Z Vadász1, M A Hassanien, E László

  • 1National Institute of Environmental Health, Fodor József National Public Health Center, Budapest, Hungary.

Central European Journal of Public Health
|August 16, 2000
PubMed
Summary

Sensitivity analysis of the Health and Environmental Safety Program (HESP) reveals that soil type and usage significantly impact Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) values. Other parameters like soil pH have minimal effect, necessitating cautious use of risk assessment tools.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Risk Assessment
  • Toxicology

Background:

  • The Health and Environmental Safety Program (HESP) is a tool used for environmental risk assessment.
  • Understanding the sensitivity of HESP's output to input parameter changes is crucial for accurate risk assessment.
  • Previous risk assessment studies have not fully explored the impact of individual parameter variations on HESP's calculated Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) values.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the effect of changing input parameters on the output ADI values calculated by the HESP 2.b risk assessment program.
  • To identify which input parameters have the most significant influence on ADI values.
  • To compare the sensitivity of HESP with another risk assessment tool, Risc Human.

Main Methods:

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  • Utilized the standard Netherlands 1.0 scenario within the HESP program.
  • Fixed most input parameters and systematically varied seven key parameters individually: soil type, soil usage, site length, soil pH, groundwater fraction in drinking water, basement floor type, and Qev.
  • Compared the resulting ADI values to baseline values calculated with default parameters.
  • Main Results:

    • Changes in soil pH and Qev did not influence ADI values for any contaminant.
    • Soil type significantly affected ADI for organic contaminants but not for lead (Pb) or cadmium (Cd).
    • Soil usage impacted ADI in most cases, showing a potential linear relationship with contaminant concentration. Altering groundwater fraction in drinking water also typically changed ADI values.

    Conclusions:

    • Certain input parameters, such as soil type and usage, critically influence HESP's ADI calculations, while others, like soil pH, have negligible effects.
    • Similar results were observed with the Risc Human program, indicating that variations in soil type, site diameter, or soil pH did not alter ADI outputs.
    • The findings underscore the need for enhanced caution and careful consideration of input parameter selection when utilizing HESP and Risc Human for risk assessment.