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Comparing hierarchical models for spatio-temporally misaligned data using the deviance information criterion.

L Zhu1, B P Carlin

  • 1Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Box 303, Mayo Memorial Building, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455-0392, USA.

Statistics in Medicine
|August 29, 2000
PubMed
Summary

Bayesian methods effectively smooth disease risk maps, even with spatially misaligned and temporal data. The deviance information criterion (DIC) aids in comparing complex hierarchical models for this data.

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Area of Science:

  • Biostatistics
  • Spatial Epidemiology
  • Geographic Information Systems

Background:

  • Bayes and empirical Bayes methods are established for smoothing disease risk maps.
  • Spatial misalignment and temporal changes complicate disease risk analysis.
  • Hierarchical Bayesian models are computationally intensive and difficult to compare.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare hierarchical Bayesian models for spatially misaligned and temporally evolving areal data.
  • To evaluate the utility of the deviance information criterion (DIC) for model comparison in this context.
  • To investigate the delta method for assessing the significance of DIC differences.

Main Methods:

  • Application of hierarchical Bayesian methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Utilized the deviance information criterion (DIC) for model comparison.
  • Employed the delta method to estimate variance for DIC.
  • Main Results:

    • The deviance information criterion (DIC) provides a method for comparing complex hierarchical models.
    • The delta method can be used to assess the statistical significance of differences in DIC.
    • The approach was illustrated using traffic density and paediatric asthma hospitalizations in San Diego County.

    Conclusions:

    • The deviance information criterion (DIC) is a valuable tool for comparing hierarchical Bayesian models with complex data structures.
    • The delta method enhances the interpretability of DIC by providing significance estimates.
    • This methodology is applicable to real-world epidemiological studies with spatial and temporal complexities.