How to generate improved potentials for protein tertiary structure prediction: a lattice model study

Success in the protein structure prediction problem relies heavily on the choice of an appropriate potential function. One approach toward extracting these potentials from a database of known protein structures is to maximize the Z-score of the database proteins, which represents the ability of the potential to discriminate correct from random conformations. These optimization methods model the entire distribution of alternative structures, reducing their ability to concentrate on the lowest energy structures most competitive with the native state and resulting in an unfortunate tendency to underestimate the repulsive interactions. This leads to reduced accuracy and predictive ability. Using a lattice model, we demonstrate how we can weight the distribution to suppress the contributions of the high-energy conformations to the Z-score calculation. The result is a potential that is more accurate and more likely to yield correct predictions than other Z-score optimization methods as well as potentials of mean force.