Prediction of the mediastinal drainage after coronary artery bypass surgery

Using multiple correlation and linear regression approaches, we investigated the association between the amount of mediastinal drainage for the first 24 postoperative hours and clinical variables as well as multiple haematological tests performed at three time points: before anaesthesia induction, 10 minutes after protamine administration and just after skin closure, on 46 patients undergoing primary coronary artery bypass grafting. Three models from the three times were then developed to predict mediastinal drainage. The number of internal mammary grafts, the total number of grafts and plasma fibrinogen concentration were useful predictors of mediastinal drainage at all three times. The platelet count taken only after skin closure was found to provide additional predictive information. Each regression model explained approximately 60% of the variation in postoperative mediastinal drainage. The information obtained from these predictive models is useful in defining high-risk populations.