Probability of finding HLA-mismatched related or unrelated marrow or cord blood donors

Given recent improvements in the technology of transplantation and histocompatibility testing, it is now possible to contemplate using related or unrelated allogeneic hematologic stem cell donors with high degrees of HLA disparity. This paper is a follow-up of an earlier publication on the probability of finding a matched donor (Transplantation 60:778-783, 1995) and addresses the probability of finding a partially mismatched donor. Assuming that a four of six antigen HLA-A, -B, -DR match is acceptable, it is possible to find unrelated donors for patients of any race from a putative registry with fewer than 10,000 potential donors. Further, storing cord blood from newborns in families with a known genetic disease would yield an acceptable future stem cell transplant product in nearly 40% of cases. These results show the potential impact of cord blood donors and emphasize the importance of improvements in transplantation using partially mismatched donors.