Identifying demand for health resources using waiting times information

Area of Science:

• Health economics
• Public health policy
• Econometrics

Background:

• Identifying determinants of demand for health services is crucial for effective resource allocation.
• Standard models often overlook the impact of waiting times as a rationing mechanism.
• Previous research has not fully addressed the endogeneity of waiting times in demand analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the determinants of demand for health services by analyzing differences in average waiting times.
• To relax the full equilibrium assumption in waiting time frameworks by employing a (semi-)parametric selection model.
• To estimate a model for the demand for acute health services at the ward level in the UK.

Main Methods:

• Utilized differences in average waiting times to infer demand determinants.
• Employed a (semi-)parametric selection model, relaxing the full equilibrium assumption by selecting low waiting time areas.
• Used determinants of supply as instrumental variables for the endogeneity of waiting times.

Main Results:

• Estimated a demand model for acute services at the UK ward level.
• Results indicate that waiting times significantly influence the observed utilization of health services.
• Accounting for rationing by waiting times is critical for accurately identifying health needs from utilization data.

Conclusions:

• Standard health service allocation models may be inaccurate if they do not account for waiting time rationing.
• The findings have significant implications for improving the allocation of health services in the UK.
• Accurate identification of health needs requires incorporating waiting time dynamics into utilization analyses.