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Disability trends among elderly persons and implications for the future.

T A Waidmann1, K Liu

  • 1The Urban Institute, Washington, DC 20037, USA. twaidman@ui.urban.org

The Journals of Gerontology. Series B, Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences
|September 14, 2000
PubMed
Summary

Disability among elderly persons is declining, impacting future healthcare needs and Medicare spending. This trend, partly due to increased education, has significant implications for long-term care.

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Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Public Health
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Understanding disability trends in the elderly population is crucial for future healthcare planning.
  • The aging population presents unique challenges for health and long-term care systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine disability trends among elderly persons using a novel data source.
  • To assess the implications of these trends on future health and long-term care needs.
  • To estimate the impact of disability decline on Medicare spending.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (1992-1996).
  • Analyzed trends in activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) disability and physical limitations.
  • Employed multinomial logit and least squares regression, controlling for demographic factors, and projected future trends.

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Main Results:

  • A significant decline in disability prevalence among elderly Medicare beneficiaries was observed.
  • Increased educational attainment in the elderly cohort partially explains the disability decline.
  • Downward disability trends have moderated the growth of per capita Medicare expenditures.

Conclusions:

  • The observed decline in disability prevalence among the elderly is a real phenomenon.
  • The continuation of this trend has profound implications for the future size of the disabled elderly population.
  • Sustained disability decline is critical for societal capacity to provide long-term care for the elderly.