Long-term predictors of stroke in a cohort of people aged 70 years

This paper aims at studying the development and the risk factors for stroke prospectively during a 6-year follow-up in the Turku Elderly Study, Turku, Finland. The study cohort consisted of 1032 people aged 70 years at baseline. The stroke events (ICD-9 codes 430-434) were identified by computer linkage from the hospital discharge and death registers, and from a follow-up questionnaire. During the 6 years of follow-up, 71 patients (6.9%) suffered a stroke. Previous stroke (RR 5.82), history of transient ischemic attack (RR 4.14), diabetes mellitus (RR 2.50), poorly controlled hypertension (RR 2.42), smoking (RR 1.94) and male sex (RR 1.65) were independent risk factors for stroke. Atrial fibrillation, cardiac failure and previous myocardial infarction did not appear to be significant independent predictors of stroke in the elderly. The risk of stroke in the elderly population appears to be strongly related to the concomitant clinical disease, and this should be remembered when identifying persons at increased risk of stroke. Poorly controlled hypertension was associated with an increased risk of stroke. Thus, achieving a good control of blood pressure in elderly hypertensives receiving treatment has the potential to prevent strokes.