Predictors of smoking cessation in an incentive-based community intervention

The Quit and Win Challenge, an incentive-based intervention, was implemented in two counties in Eastern Ontario to encourage adult smokers to quit smoking. Participants (n = 231) were compared with adult smokers selected at random (n = 385) from a larger, four-county area. Baseline characteristics were assessed by telephone interview, including socio-demographic and smoking-related factors. Follow-up interviews were also conducted by telephone. Initial and follow-up response rates were high (over 84%) in both groups. Compared with the random survey group, Quit and Win participants tended to be younger, more educated, employed and heavier smokers, with fewer friends or co-workers who smoked. After one year, 19.5% of them reported that they were smoke-free, whereas less than 1% of the random group had achieved cessation. This translates into an impact rate of 0.17%, affecting 1 in 588 adult smokers. With the exception of the smokers' baseline "stage of change," none of the socio-demographic or smoking factors was predictive of cessation. We conclude that this intervention achieved only limited success and attracted certain sectors of the community disproportionately, i.e. smokers who were highly motivated to quit. We argue that increased access to proven cessation therapies would improve the impact of such interventions.