An epidemiological analysis of leprosy from 1951-1996 in Sichuan

Through the leprosy surveillance system established in 1990s the authors analysed the epidemiology of leprosy in Sichuan province from 1951 to 1996. By the end of 1996, the total number of registered cases was 32,772, the peak incidence rate (2.44/100,000) was in 1958. The annual average progressively decreasing speed (AAPDS) of the number of new cases, incidence rate, incidence rate among children, number of newly detected patients, detection rate, number of registered cases and registered prevalence rates were 4.7% (xg = 0.9534), 5.9% (xg = 0.9407), 7.4% (xg = 0.9263), 6.7% (xg = 0.9326), 8.1% (xg = 0.9195), 10.9% (xg = 0.8913) and 11.7% (xg = 0.8828) respectively. Among newly detected cases, the proportion of children gradually declined with an AAPDS of 2.9% (xg = 0.9712), but that of household contacts gradually increased, showing a gradual decline of source of infection. The multibacillary (MB) rate among new cases, newly registered cases and active cases also increased gradually. The MB rate among child cases was much lower than that among adults. The disability rates among newly registered cases tended to decline. The peak incidence was in the 20 to 35 years age group, the average age at onset being 31.92 years. Average age at onset gradually increased to 34.19 during 1991-1995. The average interval between onset of symptoms and diagnosis was 4.89 years and that had reduced gradually to 3.24 years during 1991-1995. The authors conclude that: (1) the epidemiological trend of leprosy in Sichuan province shows decline; (2) the case-finding activities have improved and intensified; but (3) the disability rate among newly detected cases is still high (> 20%) and the average delay in diagnosis is still too long, showing that early case finding is still not satisfactory.