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Illusory correlation: a function of availability or representativeness heuristics?

M G MacDonald1

  • 1School of Education, Ferris State University, Big Rapids, MI 49307, USA. macdonam@ferris.edu

Perceptual and Motor Skills
|October 10, 2000
PubMed
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This study explored illusory correlation, finding it occurs even with manipulated information availability. However, increasing information lag did not reliably enhance perceived co-occurrence judgments.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • The illusory correlation phenomenon describes the tendency to overestimate the co-occurrence of two stimuli, particularly when they are distinctive.
  • Previous research suggests information availability influences illusory correlations, but the precise role of temporal separation (lag) requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To experimentally investigate the illusory correlation phenomenon by manipulating information availability using the lag effect.
  • To determine if increased information availability, manipulated through lag, leads to higher judged co-occurrence.
  • To examine the influence of different lag intervals (0, 2, 8, 20 intervening variables) on illusory correlation.

Main Methods:

  • Seventy-four university students participated in a study employing a methodology similar to Starr and Katkin (1969).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Participants were visually presented with paired problem descriptions and sentence completions at four lag intervals (0, 2, 8, 20).
  • Subjects judged the frequency of co-occurrence between problem descriptions and sentence completions.

    • Main Results:

    • The illusory correlation effect was confirmed for specific description-completion pairs, consistent with prior research.
    • A significant effect of lag was observed for mean ratings between 0 and 2 lags.
    • No reliable increase in judged co-occurrence was found at lags of 8 and 20, failing to support the availability hypothesis.

    Conclusions:

    • The illusory correlation effect was present but not consistently strengthened by increased information lag.
    • The findings suggest that situational biases, specifically the representativeness heuristic, may underlie the illusory correlation observed in this study.
    • Information availability, as manipulated by lag, did not directly predict increased frequency judgments of co-occurrence.