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El Niño and human health
1Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, England. s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
|October 6, 2000
Summary
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences global weather, increasing natural disaster impacts. ENSO also heightens risks for vector-borne diseases like malaria, especially where climate forecasts can predict epidemics.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of interannual climate variability.
- ENSO events, occurring every 2-7 years, significantly impact global weather patterns, leading to extreme events like floods and droughts.
- These climate extremes are linked to increased global natural disaster impacts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the association between ENSO and the risk of vector-borne diseases.
- To highlight the potential of seasonal climate forecasts in predicting epidemic risk.
- To emphasize the need for interdisciplinary research to mitigate climate variability impacts.
Main Methods:
- Review of evidence linking ENSO cycles to weather patterns and disease outbreaks.
- Analysis of the correlation between extreme weather events and the incidence of vector-borne diseases.
- Assessment of the utility of seasonal climate forecasting for early epidemic risk detection.
Main Results:
- ENSO is associated with a heightened risk of specific vector-borne diseases, notably malaria.
- Extreme weather conditions triggered by ENSO can precipitate epidemics of mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases.
- Seasonal climate forecasts show promise as early warning systems for epidemic risk, particularly for malaria.
Conclusions:
- ENSO-driven climate variability poses a significant threat to public health through increased disease risk.
- Proactive measures, including utilizing climate forecasts, are crucial for managing and reducing vulnerability to ENSO-related epidemics.
- Interdisciplinary collaboration is essential for developing effective strategies to combat climate variability and its health consequences.
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