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Updated: Jul 12, 2026

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Past incidence and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden: a report from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty

O Robertsson1, M J Dunbar, K Knutson

  • 1Department of Orthopedics, Lund University Hospital, Sweden. otto.robertsson@ort.lu.se

Acta Orthopaedica Scandinavica
|October 12, 2000
PubMed
Summary

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The number of knee replacement surgeries in Sweden has increased five-fold in 20 years, primarily due to osteoarthritis. Demand for knee arthroplasty is projected to rise by a third by 2030 without new preventive treatments.

Area of Science:

  • Orthopedics
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Osteoarthritis is a leading cause of knee arthroplasty, with a significant increase in procedures over the past two decades.
  • Operations for rheumatoid arthritis have remained constant, indicating a shift in the primary drivers for knee replacement.
  • The overall number of knee arthroplasties has risen dramatically, necessitating an examination of incidence and future demand.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To calculate the age-specific incidence of primary knee arthroplasties in Sweden.
  • To predict the future demand for knee arthroplasty based on current trends and demographic changes.
  • To identify the main conditions leading to increased knee replacement surgeries.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register and Swedish census registers.

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  • Analyzed age-specific incidence rates of primary knee arthroplasties over a 20-year period.
  • Projected future demand by incorporating expected changes in the Swedish population's age profile.

    • Main Results:

    • The mean yearly number of knee arthroplasties increased more than five-fold between 1976-1980 and 1996-1997.
    • Osteoarthritis accounted for the largest increase in knee arthroplasties; rheumatoid arthritis operations remained stable.
    • The majority of procedures were performed on individuals aged 65 and older, who also showed the largest incidence increase.

    Conclusions:

    • Knee arthroplasty demand is projected to increase by at least one-third by 2030, assuming no effective preventive treatments emerge.
    • Demographic shifts in the Swedish population contribute minimally (6%) to the observed rise in knee arthroplasty incidence.
    • The findings highlight a growing need for knee replacement surgeries, driven predominantly by osteoarthritis in the elderly population.