Estimating the numbers of refugees in London

Local populations of refugees and asylum seekers are growing in many urban areas in Western Europe and it is increasingly important to develop health and welfare services that are appropriate for these groups. However, in the United Kingdom there are no routine data sources at local level that give even the most basic information such as the numbers of refugees within a given area.

The total number of asylum seekers entering the United Kingdom was calculated using cumulative data on asylum seekers at national level. This population was then apportioned first to Greater London and then to the boroughs within London. The apportionment to London boroughs was based on analysis of four datasets. In the absence of any better evidence, an average of these four approaches was used to produce the final borough level estimates.

The total numbers of refugees and asylum seekers in London who have entered the United Kingdom over the past 15 years was estimated to be between 240,000 and 280,000. At borough level the estimates of refugee populations ranged from under 1,000 to values up to 20,000. There were statistically significant associations between the four data sources when the proportions of the London total in each borough were compared. However, for some boroughs there could be large differences between estimates based on different data sources.

The estimates provided give an indication of the size of the refugee population in London. None of the data sources used to apportion the London total were ideal and all were proxy values with their own strengths and weaknesses. This work points to the importance of developing information systems that in future will allow better estimates of the size of the refugee populations. This is particularly important in view of the UK national policy of dispersal proposed in the latest Immigration and Asylum Act.