Estimation of youth smoking behaviours in Canada

This study estimated the prevalence of current smoking and smoking initiation among Canadian youth. Logistic regression was used to relate socio-demographic predictors to the occurrence of the smoking indicators among youth (15-24 years) in the 1994/95 National Population Health Survey (NPHS). Models were then applied to provincial youth populations in the 1996/97 NPHS and the 1996 census of Canada. Model-generated estimates were compared with direct estimates obtained from NPHS data. The models accurately predicted provincial rates of current youth smoking for 1994/95. When applied to the 1996/97 NPHS, the current smoking models performed reasonably well, but were less predictive when applied to 1996 census data. Modelling of youth smoking initiation was not successful. This suggests that although simple estimation models of youth smoking can be derived, these models may not be portable across different populations or time periods.