How Fast Can the Racial Gap in Life Expectancy Between Whites and Blacks Be Eliminated?

BACKGROUND: The racial gap in life expectancy between whites and blacks fluctuated from 7.6 to 5.7 years from 1970-1996, but the causes of this gap and the years required to eliminate it remain unclear. This paper analyzes the leading causes of death and how they contribute to the racial gap in life expectancy, and estimates the number of years required to eliminate this gap. METHODS: Standard abridged life table methods and life table partitioning techniques were used to estimate the total and the cause-specific racial gap in life expectancy. Cause-specific mortality rates by age, sex, and race in the United States from 1970-1996 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The predictions of years needed to eliminate the racial gap in life expectancy are based on international and domestic trends in life expectancy improvement. RESULTS: The racial gap in life expectancy declined before 1982, increased from 1982 to 1989, and slowly declined after 1989. In 1996, about 54% and 62% of the racial gap was attributable to cancer, heart disease, homicide, and HIV for females and males, respectively. If blacks could experience substantial improvement in life expectancy, the current racial gap in life expectancy could be eliminated in about 40 years. CONCLUSIONS: The goal of eliminating the racial gap in life expectancy is a critical national priority. Differences in life expectancy are the result of multiple health and socioeconomic determinants, which will require multiple intervention strategies. The time it will take to reduce the overall gap will depend on the speed of reduction of the leading cause-specific mortality differences, which will require intensified efforts in both prevention and treatment.