How many pharmacists are in our future? The Bureau of Health Professions Projects Supply to 2020

To describe a Bureau of Health Professions model for estimating the numbers and selected demographic characteristics of active pharmacists in the United States and to relate the model's findings.

We constructed a model using as base counts data from the Pharmacy Manpower Project census of 1989 to 1991 and advancing the counts annually based on estimates of pharmacists entering and leaving the workforce. The total number of active pharmacists in any year was the sum of the male and female cohorts from age 24 through age 75. The model and its underlying assumptions included consideration of U.S. graduates through 1998, international pharmacy graduates who become licensed in the United States, new schools, type of entry-level degrees, and separation rates. A basic series and high and low alternative series were constructed based on different assumptions.

The basic series projected 196,011 active pharmacists in 2000, 224,524 by 2010, and 249,086 by 2020. Estimated pharmacists per-100,000 population were 71.2 in 2000, 74.9 in 2010, and 76.7 in 2020. The workforce was projected to consist increasingly of women: 32% in 1991, 46% in 2000, 50% in 2003, and 64% in 2020. Percentages of graduates receiving the BS degree fell from 94% (1980) to 64.4% (1998) and were projected to decrease to 0% by 2005. Estimated U.S. graduates were 7,945 in 2000, 8,133 in 2010, and 8,452 in 2020. The mean age in 2000 was 38 years for women pharmacists, 46 for men, and 42 overall. Estimates of total pharmacists in 1998 were similar to those from other sources, increasing confidence in the model.

The Bureau of Health Professions model, which can be readily revised as more and better data become available, provided estimates of active pharmacists by age and sex from 1991 to 2020. The model portrayed an increasingly female pharmacy workforce, with more pharmacists holding the PharmD degree. The model and data are useful for research, analysis, and health care planning.