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Predicting extinction risks for plants: environmental stochasticity can save declining populations.

Higgins, Pickett, Bond

    Trends in Ecology & Evolution
    |December 15, 2000
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Environmental fluctuations can threaten populations, but sometimes they unexpectedly aid survival. This depends on how a species’ life history interacts with environmental changes, impacting population growth rates.

    Area of Science:

    • Ecology
    • Conservation Biology
    • Population Dynamics

    Background:

    • A common view in conservation biology is that environmental stochasticity (random environmental changes) increases extinction risk.
    • However, coexistence theory suggests environmental stochasticity can sometimes promote population persistence.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To explore the conditions under which environmental stochasticity can influence population persistence.
    • To highlight the role of life history interactions in determining the effect of environmental stochasticity.

    Main Methods:

    • Theoretical analysis of coexistence theory.
    • Examination of interactions between life history traits and environmental stochasticity.

    Main Results:

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    • Environmental stochasticity's impact on population persistence is contingent on interactions with life history traits.
    • These interactions can lead to fundamental differences between stochastic and deterministic population growth rates.

    Conclusions:

    • The effect of environmental stochasticity on population persistence is not universally negative.
    • Understanding these complex interactions is crucial for conservation biologists, as this phenomenon is likely widespread.