Using decision analysis to choose phosphorus targets for Lake Erie

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Ecosystem Management
• Water Resource Management

Background:

• Lake Erie water quality has significantly improved since the 1960s.
• Further improvements face challenges of investment, reduced fishery productivity, and conflicting objectives between Canada and the United States.
• Public priorities within the basin must also be considered in resource management decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To demonstrate the application of decision analysis techniques to a critical Lake Erie management issue.
• To address the selection of new phosphorus loading targets for Lake Erie.
• To integrate stakeholder preferences and ecosystem objectives into policy decisions.

Main Methods:

• Systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences.
• Investigation of phosphorus-loading policies against ecosystem objectives.
• Application of decision analysis tools to Great Lakes environmental management.

Main Results:

• Decision analysis offers a framework for managing complex environmental problems in the Great Lakes.
• Elicited stakeholder preferences provide valuable input for setting new phosphorus loading targets.
• Different phosphorus-loading policies show varying potential to meet ecosystem objectives.

Conclusions:

• There are potential benefits to re-evaluating the historical policy of solely reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie.
• Decision analysis can aid in navigating trade-offs between environmental quality and economic factors like fishery productivity.
• Integrating diverse stakeholder priorities is crucial for effective and sustainable Lake Erie management.