Estimation of genetic risks of exposure to ionizing radiation: status in the year 2000

This paper provides an overview of the advances in the estimation of genetic risks of exposure of human populations to ionizing radiation with particular emphasis on the advances during the last decade. Among the latter are: (a) an upward revision of the estimates of the baseline frequencies of Mendelian diseases (from 1.25 to 2.4%); (b) the conceptual change to the use of a doubling dose based on human data on spontaneous mutation rates and mouse data on induced mutation rates (from the one based entirely on mouse data on spontaneous and induced mutation rates, which was the case thus far); (c) the fuller development of the concept of mutation component (MC) and its application to predict the responsiveness of Mendelian and chronic multifactorial diseases to induced mutations; (d) the concept that the major adverse effects of radiation exposure of human germ cells are likely to be manifest as multi-system developmental abnormalities and (e) the concept of potential recoverability correction factor (PRCF) to bridge the gap between induced mutations studied in mice and the risk of genetic disease in humans. For a population exposed to low LET, chronic/low dose-rate irradiation, the current estimates of risk for the first generation progeny are the following (all estimates per million live born progeny per Gy of parental irradiation): autosomal dominant and X-linked diseases, approximately 750 to 1,500 cases; autosomal recessive, nearly zero; chronic multifactorial diseases, approximately 250 to 1,200 cases and congenital abnormalities, approximately 2,000 cases. The total risk per Gy is of the order of approximately 3,000 to 4,700 cases which represent approximately 0.4 to 0.6% of the baseline frequency of these diseases. The main message is that at low doses of radiation of interest in risk estimation, the risk of adverse hereditary effects is small.