Potential consequences of raising the Social Security eligibility age on low-income older workers

To examine the potential consequences of raising the Social Security retirement age on future cohorts of low-income elders, this study, based on data from the Health and Retirement Study, 1992-1994, identifies factors that may hinder or facilitate continuous employment among older workers born between 1931 and 1941. Specifically, following the analysis of labor-force participation rates and self-reported reasons for non-work, multivariate logistic regression models tested the relationship between individual strengths and constraints, social-structural opportunities and constraints, and economic need variables and the likelihood of work. The findings show that for both men and women, having disabilities was the most significant predictor of non-work. Racial differences, especially in men's labor-force participation rates, appeared to be due in large part to significant racial differences in disability rates. A higher proportion of blacks and Hispanics than whites also reported that they were unemployed. Based on the findings, raising the Social Security eligibility age is likely to result in increased numbers of Disability Insurance (DI) claimants, and the fiscal impact of such an increase needs to be examined. The need to assist unemployed older persons is also discussed.