[Present and future of infectious epidemiology]

Area of Science:

• Microbiology and Epidemiology
• Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

• Revisiting the concept of microbial emergency using experimental data and personal experience.
• The emergence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in 1983 and advancements in informatic networks significantly impacted infectious epidemiology.
• Traditional models are challenged by new understandings of disease transmission.

Discussion:

• The "microbial emergency" concept necessitates a re-evaluation of infectious disease epidemiology.
• Space-time models incorporating proximity effects are essential for understanding disease diffusion patterns.
• Global contagion risks must be analyzed alongside localized spatial-temporal factors.

Key Insights:

• Proximity effect in space-time models is identified as a primary driver of infectious disease diffusion.
• The study integrates experimental results and personal experience to revise the understanding of microbial emergencies.
• A paradigm shift in infectious epidemiology is suggested, moving beyond traditional approaches.

Outlook:

• Further research into space-time epidemiological models is warranted.
• Investigating the interplay between global risks and local contagion factors.
• Developing enhanced strategies for managing and predicting infectious disease outbreaks.