The impact of variable snow pack accumulation on a major Scottish water resource

In regions such as northern Scotland, where winter temperatures are such that the occurrence of snow is borderline under the present climate, potential changes affecting precipitation and temperature regimes may have a disproportionately large impact on snow processes and hydrological behaviour. The physical characteristics of mountainous areas in Scotland mean that the spatial variability of snowpack accumulation is high, as well as the temporal variability caused by the climate. There have been few modelling studies aimed at assessing the significance of snow resources in these areas and none that have adopted a spatially distributed approach. This paper describes the approach taken in applying a new distributed model to a headwater catchment in the Cairngorm Mountains. The results demonstrate the importance of wind on re-distributing snow to create deep accumulations in small sheltered pockets. These accumulations are shown to be important in sustaining baseflows in the rivers, long after snow has melted from the rest of the catchment. The model has also produced a first set of maps showing how predicted snow depths vary across the catchment through the winter.