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Time trends in autism and in MMR immunization coverage in California
L Dales1, S J Hammer, N J Smith
1Immunization Branch, California Department of Health Services, 2151 Berkeley Way, Room 712, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA. ldales@dhs.ca.gov
JAMA
|March 20, 2001
Summary
This study found no link between measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination rates and autism diagnoses in California children. Despite rising autism cases, MMR immunization coverage showed minimal change, refuting a causal relationship.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Health
- Immunology
- Developmental Neuroscience
Background:
- Public concern exists regarding a potential link between measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination and increased autism rates in children.
- This theory has prompted significant discussion within both medical and lay communities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the potential correlation between trends in MMR immunization coverage in young children and the occurrence of autism.
- Analyzing secular trends to determine if changes in vaccination rates parallel changes in autism diagnoses.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of MMR immunization records for children born between 1980-1994 in California kindergartens.
- Review of autism caseload data from the California Department of Developmental Services for the same birth cohorts.
- Correlation analysis between MMR immunization coverage at 17 and 24 months and autism diagnoses by birth year.
Main Results:
- No significant correlation was observed between early childhood MMR immunization rates and autism occurrence trends in California.
- Autism case numbers significantly increased (373% relative increase) from 1980 to 1994.
- MMR immunization coverage by 24 months showed a modest increase (14% relative increase) during the same period.
Conclusions:
- The study's findings do not support an association between MMR immunization in young children and an increased incidence of autism.
- Data suggest that the rise in autism diagnoses is not attributable to MMR vaccination rates.
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