Using artificial intelligence to predict the equilibrated postdialysis blood urea concentration

Total dialysis dose (Kt/V) is considered to be a major determinant of morbidity and mortality in hemodialyzed patients. The continuous growth of the blood urea concentration over the 30- to 60-min period following dialysis, a phenomenon known as urea rebound, is a critical factor in determining the true dose of hemodialysis. The misestimation of the equilibrated (true) postdialysis blood urea or equilibrated Kt/V results in an inadequate hemodialysis prescription, with predictably poor clinical outcomes for the patients. The estimation of the equilibrated postdialysis blood urea (eqU) is therefore crucial in order to estimate the equilibrated (true) Kt/V. In this work we propose a supervised neural network to predict the eqU at 60 min after the end of hemodialysis. The use of this model is new in this field and is shown to be better than the currently accepted methods (Smye for eqU and Daugirdas for eqKt/V). With this approach we achieve a mean difference error of 0.22 +/- 7.71 mg/ml (mean % error: 1.88 +/- 13.46) on the eqU prediction and a mean difference error for eqKt/V of -0.01 +/- 0.15 (mean % error: -0.95 +/- 14.73). The equilibrated Kt/V estimated with the eqU calculated using the Smye formula is not appropriate because it showed a great dispersion. The Daugirdas double-pool Kt/V estimation formula appeared to be accurate and in agreement with the results of the HEMO study.