[Current problems of estimation of genetic risk of human exposure to radiation]

The methodology of assessing the genetic risk of radiation exposure is based on the concept of "hitting the target" in development of which N.V. Timofeeff-Ressovsky has played and important role. To predict genetic risk posed by irradiation, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) has worked out direct and indirect methods of assessment, extrapolational, integral and populational criteria of risk analysis that together permit calculating the risk from human exposure on the basis of data obtained for mice. Laboratory mice are the main objects in studying radiation mutagenesis due to the fact that the data on the frequency of radiation-induced human mutations are rather scarce. The method of doubling dose based on the determination of a dose doubling the level of natural mutational process in humans is the main one used to predict the genetic risk. The evolution of views about the genetics risk of human exposure to radiation for last 40 years is considered. Till 1972 the main model for assessing the genetic risk was the "human/mouse" model (the use of data on the spontaneous human variability and data on the frequency of induced mutations in mice). In the period form 1972 till 1994 the "mouse/mouse" model was intensively elaborated in many laboratories. This model was also used in this period by UNSCEAR experts to analyze the genetic risk from human irradiation. Recent achievements associated with the study of the molecular nature of many hereditary human diseases as well as the criticism of number fundamental principles of the "mouse/mouse" model for estimating the genetic risk on a new basis. The estimates of risk for the different classes of genetic diseases have been obtained using the doubling-dose method. The estimate of doubling dose used in the calculations is 1 Gy for low dose/chronic low-LET radiation conditions.