[Relationship between changes in demographic structure and incidence of anthroponotic infections]

Recent demographic shifts in Russia tell on the incidence of infectious diseases. With the aim of prediction, the authors analyzed the relationship between demographic changes in the country and the mean many-year level of anthroponotic infections with strained immunity in Moscow. Mathematical simulation methods were used. The data coincided with decreases in the incidence of scarlet fever and viral hepatitis A, observed in the nineties. On the other hand, the incidence of infectious diseases can return to the level of the beginning of the nineties irrespective of the demographic status in Russia.