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Updated: May 7, 2026

Calcification of Vascular Smooth Muscle Cells and Imaging of Aortic Calcification and Inflammation
Published on: May 31, 2016
Abdominal aortic calcific deposits are an important predictor of vascular morbidity and mortality
P W Wilson1, L I Kauppila, C J O'Donnell
1From the NHLBI's Framingham Heart Study and Boston University School of Medicine, Framingham, Massachusetts, USA.
Insights
Abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) deposits detected on lumbar X-rays predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Increased AAC levels are linked to higher rates of coronary heart disease, CVD, and mortality, highlighting its value in risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular epidemiology
- Radiology
- Vascular disease research
Background:
- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide.
- Predictive markers for CVD are crucial for early intervention and risk stratification.
- The role of abdominal arterial calcific deposits in long-term CVD prediction requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) detected on lateral lumbar radiographs as a predictor of incident coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD, and CVD mortality.
- To assess the association between varying grades of AAC and long-term vascular event rates in a large cohort.
- To determine if AAC is an independent predictor of vascular morbidity and mortality.
Main Methods:
- A cohort of 1049 men and 1466 women (mean age 61) was followed from 1967 to 1989.
- Lateral lumbar radiographs were analyzed for anterior and posterior abdominal aortic calcific deposits (AAC) using a validated 0-24 point scale.
- Proportional hazards logistic regression models were used to assess the association between AAC tertiles and incident CHD, CVD, and CVD mortality, adjusting for multiple risk factors.
Main Results:
- Higher tertiles of AAC were associated with significantly increased relative risks for CVD in both men and women compared to the lowest tertile.
- Multivariate analyses indicated that AAC was a significant predictor of incident CHD, CVD, and CVD mortality.
- Similar associations were observed for CHD and CVD mortality, suggesting a consistent predictive value across different vascular endpoints.
Conclusions:
- Abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) deposits, identifiable on lateral lumbar radiographs, serve as a marker of subclinical atherosclerotic disease.
- AAC is an independent predictor of subsequent vascular morbidity and mortality.
- Routine radiographic assessment for AAC may aid in identifying individuals at elevated risk for future cardiovascular events.
Background:
The impact of abdominal arterial calcific deposits on the prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) over a long follow-up interval deserves greater scrutiny.
Methods And Results:
Lateral lumbar radiographs were studied as a predictor of incident coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD, and CVD mortality in 1049 men and 1466 women (mean age, 61 years) who were followed from 1967 to 1989. Anterior and posterior wall calcific deposits in the aorta at the level of the first through fourth lumbar vertebrae were graded according to increasing severity using a previously validated rating scale for abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) that ranges from 0 to 24 points. There were 454 cases of CHD, 709 cases of CVD, and 365 CVD deaths. Proportional hazards logistic regression was used to test for associations between AAC and later events after adjustment for age, cigarette use, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, left ventricular hypertrophy, body mass index, cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol. In comparisons with the lowest AAC tertile, the multivariate age-adjusted relative risks (RR) for CVD were increased in tertile 2 (men: RR, 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.74; women: RR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.65) and tertile 3 (men: RR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.25 to 2.27; women: RR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.38). Similar results were obtained with CHD and CVD mortality.
Conclusions:
AAC deposits, detected by lateral lumbar radiograms, are a marker of subclinical atherosclerotic disease and an independent predictor of subsequent vascular morbidity and mortality.
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