Waiting times to appearance and dominance of advantageous mutants: estimation based on the likelihood

The germinal center reaction (GCR) of vertebrate immunity provides a remarkable example of evolutionary succession, in which an advantageous phenotype arises as a spontaneous mutation from the parental type and eventually displaces the parental type altogether. In the case of the immune response to the hapten (4-hydroxy-3-nitrophenyl)acetyl (NP), as with several other designed immunogens, the process is dominated by a single key mutation, which greatly simplifies the modeling of and analysis of data. We developed a two-stage model of this process in which the primary stage represents the appearance and establishment of the mutant population as a stochastic process while the second stage represents the growth and dominance of the clone as a deterministic process, conditional on its time of establishment from stage one. We applied this model to the analysis of population samples from several germinal center (GC) reactions and used maximum-likelihood methods to estimate the waiting times to arrival and to dominance of the mutant clone. We determined the sampling properties of the maximum-likelihood estimates using Monte Carlo methods and compared them to their asymptotic distributions. The methods we present here are well-suited for use in the analysis of other systems, such as tumor growth and the experimental evolution of bacteria.