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Depletion models can predict shorebird distribution at different spatial scales.

J A Gill1, W J Sutherland, K Norris

  • 1School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. j.gill@uea.ac.uk

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|March 29, 2001
PubMed
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Depletion models accurately predict animal population sizes habitat can support across various scales. This enhances confidence in forecasting environmental change impacts on wildlife populations.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Wildlife population dynamics
  • Conservation biology

Background:

  • Predicting habitat change impacts requires understanding carrying capacity.
  • Depletion models estimate animal numbers based on prey density and predator foraging parameters.
  • Existing models are limited to small spatial scales, hindering large-scale environmental change predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the efficacy of depletion models in predicting population abundance at multiple spatial scales.
  • To evaluate the application of depletion models for black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica).

Main Methods:

  • Calculated predator handling time and searching efficiency from the functional response of black-tailed godwits to prey.
  • Integrated prey density data from surveys with foraging parameters into a depletion model.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Validated model predictions against Wetland Bird Survey data.

    • Main Results:

    • Depletion models successfully predicted black-tailed godwit abundance at three scales: within mudflats, within estuaries, and between estuaries.
    • Significant correlations were found between predicted and observed population densities.
    • The models demonstrated predictive power across varying spatial resolutions.

    Conclusions:

    • Depletion models are effective tools for predicting site-specific population sizes across diverse spatial scales.
    • These models enhance the reliability of environmental change impact assessments on wildlife.
    • The study supports the broader application of depletion models in ecological forecasting and conservation planning.