[Life expectancy and the need for nursing care in Germany]

Effects of further gains in life expectancy on the health and autonomy of the elderly population are a matter of controversy. Health indicators, which integrate information on both mortality and morbidity could help to clarify whether the additional years are spent in health or disease. Since the introduction of a statutory long-term care insurance in Germany, national data on the prevalence of dependency are available. These data were used for the calculation of dependency-free life expectancy and life expectancy in a state of dependency according to Sullivans method. The calculations are based on 71.5 million insured at mid-year 1999 and on the period life-table for the years 1995/97. At the age of 65 the average duration of dependency is 15.4 months for men and 29.4 months for women. Men can expect to spend 91.4% of their remaining lifetime dependency-free, whereas the dependency-free proportion among women is only 86.9%. The distribution of severity grades of dependency is similar for both sexes. Women, however, spend 35.4% of the total duration of dependency in institutional care (10.4 months), men only 22.1% (3.5 months). Information from long-term care insurance appears suitable for the monitoring of time trends in the health of the elderly population and for projections of future needs for health and social services.